Jay was right..

Jay Anderson made a comment predicting that a first ballot in which Ratzinger didn't win would be spun as a smackdown.

He was right. I don't remember the exact words, but it was something like, "Cardinal Ratzinger, a strong supporter of John Paul II's hardline policies, and a favorite going into the conclave, failed to win on today's first ballot."

Of course, 114 other cardinals "failed to win," but it's not implied that their failures are expressive of their fellow cardinals' rejection of their stances.

Comments

[Dan McCuen]

I see Ratzinger's chances as high early, within the first 72 hrs. If you recall, Cardinal Wojtyla was elected on the 3d day.

But if he cannot reach the magic number early, his chances will fall until that time when the new rules kick in. If there is no selection, and the new rules enter into play, THEN Ratzinger's chances soar once more. For those who initially desired him to succeed John Paul the Great, will be able to return to him and vote according to their heart. So it is the middle distance that could prove perilous to his chances.

I have a feeling this conclave could be one of the more dramatic, and might last over 10 days.

We will see.

Of course, this is all speculative.

[Dan McCuen]

I see Ratzinger's chances as high early, within the first 72 hrs. If you recall, Cardinal Wojtyla was elected on the 3d day.

But if he cannot reach the magic number early, his chances will fall until that time when the new rules kick in. If there is no selection, and the new rules enter into play, THEN Ratzinger's chances soar once more. For those who initially desired him to succeed John Paul the Great, will be able to return to him and vote according to their heart. So it is the middle distance that could prove perilous to his chances.

I have a feeling this conclave could be one of the more dramatic, and might last over 10 days.

We will see.

Of course, this is all speculative.

[Anne]

And haven't I read in about 5 different places that in the first round of voting people traditionally vote for their friends and mentors and people they want to honor, and don't get serious about voting for viable candidates until the second day? Which would suggest it means nothing whatsoever that no one won the first ballot.

[ml]

I've been thinking than any pope elected through the 50% + 1 option could be spun as a weak candidate unable to muster "full" support.

Why did PJPII change the rules in 1996, do you think? Apparently no conclave in the past century has lasted more than a few days, so I don't see that there was a need for a simple majority option. OTOH, I've read that PJPII's more recent cardinal appointments were far more conservative than many of earlier days, so maybe he anticipated a difficulty in getting a conservative elected with a two-thirds vote? He also vastly expanded the number of cardinals outside Europe, so was the simple majority option a move to facilitate the election of a non-European? Both?

[Jay Anderson]

Thanks, Amy.

But this is one of those times where I would have loved to have been wrong.

[Eileen R]

Well, according to the morning CBC news, "This is Ratzinger's make or break day."

[Ronny]

Personally, I think that the report should have read "Ronny, an adult Catholic male, failed to win on today's first ballot."

Guess I'm going to have to quit working on that papal coat of arms I was designing -- which is too bad, since I was going to be the first one with a liger in it!

[Mark R]

GOSH!

[martha]

Ronny,
what's a liger?

[Wisconsinkathy]

WE HAVE A POPE!!!!!

THANK GOD: FATHER, SON, and HOLY SPIRIT!!!

And, of course, the spin is starting here in our silly little country. Just heard Father Greeley.

[Wisconsinkathy]

WE HAVE A POPE!!!!!

THANK GOD: FATHER, SON, and HOLY SPIRIT!!!

And, of course, the spin is starting here in our silly little country. Just heard Father Greeley.

[Ronny]

Martha,

The liger is the offspring of a male lion and a female tiger -- check it out here. It is also happens to be pretty much the coolest animal according to Napoleon Dynamite.